Comment
A health
check of our map on Indonesia - What is Gus Dur's strategy.
May 30, 2001
Related
Map
Indonesia:
TNI needed for a fast recovery scenario. Apr 24, 2001
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The unfolding of the Indonesian crisis is moving along in slow motion as suggested in our last map on the country. But unless we understand Gus Dur strategy, all these media reports and commentaries from experts are confusing. Firstly and lastly, President Wahid wants to remain in power. He is a smart man, but given the overwhelming odds, he may still fail. That is why his numerous opponents, have been uncharacteristically confident and cocky about his down fall. If you recall our last map on Indonesia, the leverage is with the TNI and Abri. And as we have suggested, the TNI wanted to stay away and if possible stand above the ongoing politicking. The one item that the TNI will not compromise is the disintegration of the unity of Indonesia, and President Wahid will surely leverage it. Their strategy is pledge allegiance beyond the President, and invoke the authority of the constitution. If they succeed, history will judge them leniently, and their future would also be secure. President Wahid's strategy is to risk the disintegration of the Indonesia State, in which case the TNI would be forced to keep him as President for the sake of a united Indonesia. At the same time, he cannot be seen to be fostering initiatives to break up the nation. Therefore he had to issue his toothless decree to put down anarchic behavior. Prior to that he had tested the waters by threatening to dissolve parliament and invoke emergency rule. If Megawati and Amien Rais want to succeed convincingly, they must attack President Wahid strategy. What is that strategy? Amien Rais full of confidence had articulated it clearly - Give Gus Dur time to dig his own grave. By the Art of War this is the equivalent of laying siege to fortified cities. This is a poor strategy, as Indonesia does not have the luxury of time. It also shows that the majority of politicians are more in love of power than country. Gus Dur enemies are patient, and as observers we can expect this episode to be played out slowly. Meanwhile Indonesia burns and its people suffer.
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